Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
